RealOddsFootball calculates for you the realistic probability and odds for the outcome of a game -
with no bookmaker margins or hidden costs.
Input Data
Refine Settings
Get Real Odds (and likelihood)
Compare with Bookmakers Odds
Gain Benefit!
If the actual odds are lower than the bookmaker's, you can gain an edge over the house... whenever your bet matches the final outcome...
If the actual odds are not lower than the bookmakers', you can observe the bookmakers' margin and decide whether to bet or not, taking into account the probability of a particular outcome.
RealOddsFootball uses a statistical method called Poisson distribution to calculate all possible outcomes by estimating the goals scored for each team.
Real Odds of the most common bets are available from 3-way to asian handicap - main results - total goals - over/under and of course special combinations.
So: over/under with 3-way, combined correct scores and much more.
Main Function
Input - Check - Results - Service
INPUT-Section: Enter your details for both teams. The day of the match and the number of goals scored by each team are required. You get the average immediately.
Below is a slider to set an advantage or disadvantage for the home team. It influences the average of goals scored. Please don't forget to push the START button!
QUICK CHECK area: Enter the desired outcome of a match for a quick check. REAL ODDS FOOTBALL calculates the probability and true odds using the given data from the input panel.
As a service, you can convert odds into probabilities or vice versa. At the bottom of the screen, the outcome is displayed with the most likely outcome along with the probability and the odds.
MAIN RESULTS: All calculated results are displayed here. You can find the dates of almost all popular bets in their own categories by scrolling down. In addition to the true odds, you always have access to the probability of a specific outcome. Compare this data to official bookmakers odds to get an edge!
SERVICE: Please feel free to use our helpdesk in different languages. And please read carefully our disclaimer, terms & conditions.
Main Functions
Input - Check - Results - Service
INPUT-Section: Enter your details for both teams. The day of the match and the number of goals scored by each team are required. You get the average immediately.
On international competitions, where the teams have different matchdays played, enter different matchdays.
Hint: Think about to consider only data from the last home or away matches for each team.
Please don't forget to push the START button!
Advantage/Disadvantage Slider: Use the slider below to adjust up to 20% of the home team's calculated goal ratio.
For example, enter plus values: a typical home advantage of 0.15 points (about 5% to 15% depending on average score) or when the visiting team's top scorer misses the game or the home team is on a winning streak. Conversely, enter negative values.
START: Accept the entered data by pressing the start button.
Main Results
Main Results - Corecct Scores - Total Scores - Special - Handicap
MAIN-RESULTS:
Under MAIN RESULTS you will find the probabilities for common bets such as 3-WAY, Double Chance, Draw no bet, both teams to score. All results are determined from individual predictions for scoring the number of goals scored.
You will not only find the correctly calculated odds for all betting options, but also the probabilities. This should help you to realistically assess the chances of winning without having to orientate yourself to the usually distorted odds of the betting providers.
Under CORRECT SCORES not only the predictions for the correct end result (up to 6:6) can be found, but also various combination bets (after 6:6) in the middle column.
TOTAL SCORES
This section is divided into two parts. In the upper part you will find various combination bets, in the lower part you will find the probabilities and odds for the exact number of goals that each team or both together will score.
(up to 9 goals).
OVER/UNDER
Here are the probabilities and odds for the Over/Under bets from 0.5 to 9.5 goals in the following order: Both Teams, Home Team, Away Team.
SPECIAL
Here you can find special combinations: Over/Under combined with 3-way.
HANDICAP
Here is the section for asian handicap betting up to an advantage of 5 goals - for home team and away team respectively.
Tips & Tricks
Gain an edge over the bookies...
General remark
The main purpose of the app is to gain an edge over bookmakers by comparing the real odds to bookmakers. Their odds always include a profit margin. But sometimes - for whatever reason - the different providers do not assess the chances exactly. Especially if you compare the different offers with each other, you can often gain an advantage. Note though: Provided the bet wins overall!
If the real odds are lower than the bookmaker's , you can gain an edge over the house... whenever your bet matches the final outcome...
If the real odds are higher than the bookmakers', you can observe the bookmakers' margin and decide whether to bet or not, taking into account the probability of a particular outcome.
With this tool, thanks to the algorithm used, you can calculate the odds in such a way that you can show off your knowledge.
1st Tip: pay attention to form curves
Reduce the number of game days or only include the last 10 game days in the calculation. Follow the form of each team and decide from which match day it makes sense to include seasonal data. This always gives you an advantage over the bookmakers whose algorithms are not flexible. 2nd tip: Calculate home and away strength separately
Use the home table for the home team and the away goals scored by the away team to calculate. The input form gives you the opportunity to enter different match days if necessary. 3rd tip: Enter average values.
You can also enter comma separated values - (separated with a period) in the goals scored input fields. Then just enter a "1" under matchday. 4th tip: Assess the advantages and disadvantages of the teams.
With the slider in the input mask or by manipulating the entry of the goals scored, you can incorporate various influencing factors:
.
a) If the top scorer of a team is ill.
b) When a team has not won for a long time; or
c) When a team is on a winning streak
d) If a team comes from a weaker or stronger league
e) If a team has a significantly higher or lower monetary value (note: money doesn't score goals! ...or does it?)
5th tip: Have fun!
Frequently Asked Question
Today & Tomorrow
Why can't I just select a match from a table? Why is there no connection to an API?
Quite simply: Every connection to a commercial API is associated with costs that have to be passed on to the customers.
However, since there is no intention of offering the app as a subscription or with advertising, this option is deliberately avoided.
I also calculate the probabilities and odds of other sports with this app?
That is only possible to a limited extent. The statistical algorithm also makes it possible to calculate other data - however, the result display is limited to up to 9 goals per team - and thus all calculations as well. In sports with mostly higher results such as American football, basketball etc. or other counting methods such as in tennis, no meaningful results can be output in this way.
However, apps for these sports are planned.
Why is the Poisson distribution used as a method and why does it make sense?
The Poisson distribution is a recognized method for calculating such probabilities and is also used in betting. Various scientific investigations and studies have proven the high predictive power of this statistical method.
Why are only the goals scored included in the calculation?
Here again the reference to 1. various scientific studies, which almost without exception confirm this way and 2. to the direct comparison with the adjusted odds of the betting providers. However, an implementation in a next update is being considered. This should make it possible to include the ratio of goals conceded in the calculation.
